BIG POINT: First Final Four in 20 years. That's a heck of an accomplishment. The Florida game was impressive - Michigan's offense was simply far better than anything Florida could do. It was beyond pretty to see that kind of ball movement and quality offensive play. I love unselfish basketball, and Michigan was all about that yesterday.
1. Trey Burke is the player of the year. There is no question on this point. He understands how to be a point guard better than most of the players I've seen in college basketball in the last ten years. That guy could score 20 a game if he wanted and leave his teammates behind, but you see him passing up easy 15-foot jump shots to get his teammates layups. McGary wouldn't get nearly as many clean rebounds and looks at layups if the entire team wasn't focused on Burke and the other three point shooters. Michigan fans should enjoy him these last two games (yes, I pick Michigan to make the final), because he's gone to the NBA. No doubt on this. Would love to see him in New Orleans throwing lobs to Anthony Davis next year.
2. Nik Stauskas is going to be a ballplayer. That guy is going to be the best long-range shooter in college basketball before he's done. Still needs some strength, and more confidence in his drive at the college level, but that jumper is smooth like butter. Effortless. I bet he has 30-foot range (and that is very, very special). If Michigan's point guard play suffers in the next few years, I'd run screens for this guy all game - he will make those shots.
3. Hardaway's still an enigma - he could either go for 20 or 0-20. You never know. With his tools, he should crash the boards when his jumper's not going in - easy way to get to the line, make some free throws and regain confidence. He can be a big-time player, but he has to learn how to impact the game when he is not making a lot of shots.
4. Ah, McGary. The new darling. Everyone's talking about how unstoppable this guy is. He is making all his shots off putbacks and dunks. He is simply working harder than everyone on the court, and getting the benefits of that. If you play him with good post defense, it negates his productivity, and makes it easy for all that energy to result in cheap fouls. Now, don't get me wrong - I love energy on the basketball court. It's the only reason I still score regularly on kids half my age - they don't expect the older guy to be outworking them. But, Mitch needs a post game next year, because Burke will be gone, and all the attention will be focused squarely on him. Let's wait another year before we anoint him the second coming of Shaquille O'Neal.
AND NOW, TO THE SPARTANS:
Michigan State did not, at any point in time, ever act like the aggressor in this game. Duke looked like a Big 10 team, and we looked like the team from the ACC. For those of us that would say the refs screwed us by calling too many fouls, while I agree that too many touch fouls were called on both sides, it didn't cost us the game. many of the fouls we picked up were because:
1. We played defense with our feet instead of our hands
2. We were beat on plays and tried to slow them down
3. We weren't in proper rebounding position
4. We fouled jump shooters
And Duke made 24 of 26 free throws.
Seth Curry also made matters difficult - running through screens in a way that would make Neitzel or Respert proud. State simply didn't make the adjustments they needed to as he rained in points. By the time Harris had success defending him, it was too late. Combine that with the lack of adjustments Nix made with the double teams, and it was pretty much curtains for us.
So, what do we have to look forward to in 2014? Here's a brief analysis of all returning players that actually played this year, with homework assignments for each of them:
1. ADREIAN PAYNE: I've heard all the NBA talk. He isn't ready. He can't score, or even hold position consistently with his back to the basket. All the praise he gets for his three point shot takes away from his ability to crash the offensive glass. Just like last year with Draymond Green, you cannot have your best rebounder consistently spotting up for 15 footers and outside the three point line, even if he can make those shots. Athletically, he's exceptional. Which is why he should work on his dribble and a jump hook this summer, maybe a turnaround jump shot at the block (which would be unguardable, considering his height and length). I'd like to see him be the number one low-post option for a season, deal with those expectations, then test the NBA.
2. KEITH APPLING: YouTube footage from when Keith was a high schooler. He was a ridiculous scorer. He set the high school Breslin Center scoring record as a senior in the state championship game. His jump shot was fluid, elbow in, butter. Now, look at it. The MSU coaching staff has wrecked this part of his game. He's making a better percentage, but his mechanics suck. He has no midrange game other than a floater. He is still having trouble breaking down the defense and getting the ball to others in half-court sets. Because he is not, nor will he ever be, a point guard. One thing Appling is, beyond all others, is tough. Seriously tough. He needs to remember this next year, and play with that energy all the time. His homework this summer is to work on his midrange, changing speeds off the dribble, and clock/game management. Like it or not, he will run this team, and if he has games where he scores 16 points, but has no assists, we will lose more than we win. With that said, if you play basketball, you want a warrior like Keith Appling on your team. Every time.
3. GARY HARRIS: He's a pro. You can see it in his game. Fluid. Even when he's injured, he just moves like it. His homework is to stay in school and heal up. Those shoulders are a real concern, one that will only be corrected with rest and strength training. Without the weight room, this guy won't last in the NBA, because everyone will be bigger and stronger. Most of the improvement MSU needs centers around getting this guy the ball. He is the legit Big 10 player of the year if he gets 15 shots a game. His coaching staff needs to realize this and give him the ball. Appling's #1 target when he drives to the basket should be Harris on the wing.
4. BRANDEN DAWSON: Probably the player in the Big 10 with the highest ceiling athletically but with the most work to do. Cannot dribble or shoot at the college level. Still suffering from the affects of the ACL tear. Is fairly useless outside of 6-8 feet from the basket offensively. This guy's height and tools should allow him to be a beast. But he needs to work out 7 days a week on his game from now till when the season starts to have an impact on the game. I would make him dribble everywhere he goes - everywhere. As broken as Appling's jumper is, Dawson's is worse. Looks like a catapult. He needs to fix his form (bring the elbow DOWN), extend at a 45 degree angle, and work from 10 feet out to 15 feet, 500 shots a day. Once he gets the form fixed, he needs to shoot it after running a few miles, to get the repetition while tired. It's not rocket science. Just hard work.
5. MATT COSTELLO: In my opinion, the easy choice at this point for fifth starter. That's because you don't have to run plays for him yet; he just has to rebound, play defense and give energy. Basically everything McGary does for Michigan. The difference is, Costello's a little small. Needs at least 10-15 pounds of muscle to not get pushed around as much. For him, I'd also work on some back to the basket stuff, the side 15-footer, confidence with a spin move. He's got some ability, now it's just about playing regularly at high speed, and not turning the ball over on offense. But, I love his hustle and fire, and as his high school career proves, he can do some things on the basketball court.
6. TRAVIS TRICE: Needs to stay injury-free, and continue to work on breaking down defenders off the dribble, both for layups and midrange jump shots. He's great with the ball, and knows how to run a team. He can't change how short and small he is, but I'd like to see him get in the lane more - he can then get more teammates involved in the offense. The biggest thing is to stay injury free.
7. DENZEL VALENTINE: The best pure point on the team. By a mile. Understands where to get the ball to people, and sees the game a play ahead. His court vision is amazing. He is a joy to watch, as he makes difficult plays look easy. As he said after the Duke game, he needs to work on his quickness and shot. Absolutely correct. He needs to be able to create a jump shot for himself at this level off the dribble. The quickness improvement will allow him to be in the game more, because even with his height, he's not fast enough to guard point guards, which is why he most likely won't be the #1 point for Izzo's team, even though he's the best choice. He, other than Dawson (because he has so much room for improvement) has the biggest upside. Denzel's stat line as a senior could easily be 15 points, 8 assists and 8 rebounds. He has that potential.
8. ALEX GAUNA: Took a step back this year, even with more experience than Costello. Even though he's almost as big as Nix, plays six inches smaller than his height. Everyone seems to want to anoint him as another Goran Suton, but people forget that Suton, in addition to having a great jump shot, was a true low post player, and a good rebounder. Gauna is neither, at least not at this level. He needs lots of defensive work, rebounding drills, and a go-to post move. He should be royally pissed that Costello is taking minutes from him - that's the sign of someone that wants to be great.
9. RUSSEL BYRD: Feel terrible for this guy. His confidence is shattered. Those three foot injuries cost him, and I hate to say it, and I could be wrong, but I think he won't be more than a spot player for this team. He simply doesn't have the time to improve enough to impact the game consistently. I hope I'm wrong, because we desperately need shooters, but I think he's the second coming of Isaiah Dahlman (who by the way, was destroying everyone in front of him in practice when I observed a few years ago). A nice guy who everyone roots for, but can't win you the game.
And, my last critique, is for the coaching staff. All know my respect, love and admiration for Coach Izzo. He epitomizes everything about MSU Basketball. The best of the best. And yet, there are things I saw this year that are part of this team's DNA that need changing:
1. We supposedly have 150 plays and set options. Yet, we can't ever seem to score more than 60 points a game unless we get a lot of transition baskets. With the athletes you have, you could run a free-flowing offense that puts the ball in the post AND frees shooters and slashers. Face it, our guys are too easily guardable, and don't adapt to defenses well. Our offense should look to clearly establish Payne and Harris, with Appling breaking down his defender. Dawson should be slashing from the weakside wing to the basket EVERY SINGLE PLAY; that's how he picks up the majority of his rebounds. Harris should be given a green light to shoot 15 times a game. Payne should flash the high post and get the ball there every time he's open - it's an easy jump shot, or two dribbles and a dunk. Costello's job is to clean up the misses. Simplify the offense, run downscreens for shooters (you know, like Duke did), and let your players create some offense at the end of a half sometimes. Running a set play all the time doesn't allow your players the freedom or confidence to adapt if they see something. Basketball is the most intuitive of commonly-played sports; we should treat it as such.
2. We should send three guys to the glass ON EVERY SINGLE PLAY. The best MSU teams simply outworked the other team on the glass. We've not been able to do that because we've had rebounders lately who were undersized or couldn't jump. MSU's heritage is to get great position, get the rebound, and score or re-set the offense. Period. With Appling and Harris penetrating, that's another dimension that will create rebounds. Rebounding the ball is who we are. Simple as that.
3. Our help defense used to be the best in the country. Now, we have guys getting beat routinely. Go back and watch tapes of Kalin's sophomore year - the defense was NASTY. We can get there again, because we have more athletes now. We had some really great games last year defensively, but make no mistake, defense can create offense. Look at Syracuse and Louisville. Defensive Juggernauts.
So, assuming no one takes the cash and leaves before they're ready, we have the makings of another Big 10 championship team. A lot is to be determined on that score (namely, if Trey Burke shocks everyone and stays), but it will be fun to see how everything develops.
Loved watching the Spartans this year; that Michigan game at Breslin goes down as my favorite basketball experience that didn't involve Michael Jordan. Wow. GO GREEN!!
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