Tomorrow, Big Ten Tournament 2013 will begin. The only thing that has the potential to be an even more notable highlight to a regular season for the ages is all these teams playing in a condensed space over four days. I've watched Big Ten basketball for over 20 years - the field has never been this competitive from the top team to the middle of the pack. Any team could get on a roll and win this thing.
This column will focus on the top five seeds in the tournament, the teams with the most likely chance of winning three or four games in five days. We'll start at the back, and work our way up......
#5 - MICHIGAN
Kind of anticlimactic to win the player of the year award just after you miss the front end of the 1 and 1 to go ahead on Indiana in the final two minutes, and miss a final layup attempt when you had a clear path to the basket and instead of finishing the play, you tried to look for contact, only there wasn't a player that close? Look at the replay - that was, relatively speaking, one of the easier shots Burke had that night. With that said, at the end of the game, you want the ball in the hands of your top players. In both instances, Burke and Hardaway came up short. That can't happen on a neutral court, where you won't get the benefit of any home judgement calls. Michigan has been in the business lately of losing late leads - 10 points against MSU, 15 against Penn State, 5 against Indiana in the last two minutes. This team has not demonstrated that they can close teams out. Part of this is their style of play - all their sets are predicated on dribble penetration and down screens for three point shots. If your jump shots don't fall, the other team has both an easy chance for rebounds and a whole lot of chances at them. Burke is a singular talent, but he cannot carry this team against an entire defense designed to stop him. Michigan has to get help from their bigs, at least on the glass, so make a run in this tournament and have any chance of making noise in the NCAAs. If not, they will see a quick end to their season, and Burke will be preparing for the NBA draft. One last point - Michigan has the toughest road here, having to win four games in four days. With their lack of depth and overemphasis on jump shooting, winning this tournament doesn't seem possible, especially against having to face teams like Indiana, MSU or Ohio State in succession. All signs point to the Michigan bandwagon having a quick postseason.
#4 WISCONSIN
Never underestimate a Bo Ryan coached team. Period. I know they just laid an egg at home to Purdue. This team, by and large, doesn't beat itself. They run disciplined offense and chest to chest defense. If the other team matches their tempo, they have a great chance to win. They beat Indiana at home this year, a truly tough place to play. The challenge for them, as in most years, is generating enough offense to stay with another team that has scorers at multiple positions. This is the part of the game where their lack of athleticism shows loud and clear. They also are a bit young, particularly up front. They make mistakes on defense and closeouts this year that they haven't made in years. Lastly, they are missing senior leadership for the first time in a while. Wisconsin could sneak in the back door and win this tournament, but it would take four of the top five seeds to have bad offensive days against them. Not going to happen. If Wisconsin makes the sweet 16 this year, I would call that a great achievement. I also love that they never, ever give up. Lots of teams do less with more than this group has.
#3 MICHIGAN STATE
I have green blood in my veins; everyone knows that. I'll evaluate these guys the best I can in spite of that. This is one of the more emotionally fragile teams out there. If they're on a hot streak, I'm convinced they can win the national championship. If they don't believe in themselves for a seven minute period of the game, they will be beaten in a single-elimination tournament. The Spartans have almost everything you'd want in a college basketball team. They have significant athletic ability at almost every position. Skilled guard play. A solid post presence. They can play both transition basketball and half court. They are capable of stifling defense, even in man-to-man. They have only lost one double-digit game all year, and that was on New Year's Eve. Even though they didn't beat Indiana this year, you feel as if for a few brain farts, they could have, especially at home. So, what don't the Spartans have? Here's a few things:
1. A consistent knock-down shooter
Gary Harris will most likely be this guy next year. But this year, MSU does not have one player where you know if they take a jump shot, it will go in more often than not. Harris is the closest guy, and he is capable of a great deal. MSU guards need to hit their jump shots to keep single coverage on the post - one of their biggest strengths. Appling and Trice can help here, but neither is shooting it well enough to give me a lot of confidence.
2. Uncertain strategy at the end of games
Watching MSU in close games this year, even though they have won their share, you almost feel like they backed into some of those wins. At least on the floor, there seems to be confusion about assignments and responsibilities if the lead is less than four points. More often than not, the play is "get the hell out of Appling's way," but even that isn't the best strategy, as evidenced by his confidence lapses over the last month. Coach Izzo is also suspect here - it seems to be happening more regularly that when he calls time out to set up a critical play, the team either immediately turns the ball over or gets a bad shot, that you hear in the press conference is "not what we drew up." Basketball, for all the athletic ability and skill, is a simple game. Get the ball within 12 feet of the basket, and positive things happen. Appling has been able to do this a bunch this year, but in the tournament, teams will play him all sorts of ways. MSU needs to have 3-5 options AT MOST to get either Appling, Payne or Harris a shot with less than a minute to go. Those are your stars. You ride with them.
3. Attitude
This team is built to be mean. But, they only acted like it once (and you saw what happened during the Michigan evisceration). There is no one on this team that plays with a chip on their shoulder. They play very hard, but that mean streak, that "you are not winning this game" doesn't seem to be there yet. The floor slapping? Cliche'. Everyone does that now. MSU, no matter the skill level, will always be a blue-collar program. Defend, rebound the heck out of the ball, and then outwork the other team to score. The last time this team won the national championship, the best player wasn't Mateen. He just had the attitude. The best guy for this is Payne. Appling is not that guy. Harris is not that guy. Trice is too fragile to be that guy. Nix is not that guy - he's not good enough. Payne can be that guy.
One last thought on the Spartans. How in the hell did a Wolverine get all-defensive team over any player on the Spartans?! Jordan Morgan was hurt for part of the year, and averaged barely a blocked shot a game when he was in. That was ridiculous. You could have put any member of the Hoosiers, Buckeyes, Badgers, or Spartans on that list over a Wolverine. If they played defense they wouldn't have lost so many leads - they can't get a stop when the game's on the line. Complete BS.
#2 OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes have everything you'd want in a battle-tested NCAA tournament team - save one. They don't have a consistent #2 scorer. Their offense reminds me of the episode of the Fresh Prince of Bel Air when the whole team keeps passing the ball to Will Smith, and everyone else is scared to shoot. That's what happened most of the year with everyone looking for DeShaun Thomas. Who, by the way, is a great scorer and shooter - if he can get his shot off against the average NBA player, he could have a future in the league. Aaron Craft is exactly the kind of player I want on my team - you have to break his legs to get him to stop coming after you. One of the best on-ball defenders ever in the Big Ten (although he gets away with stuff in conference that he won't in the tournament). I say this with pride - he would be the perfect Spartan. But, he can't be the #2 scorer because his jumper is so suspect, and honestly, he expends every bit of his energy playing defense and running the team.
If this team can keep the score low (like below 60), they can put teams out - they all have bought into defense. They have a thin bench too, but the key for them is keeping Thomas out there and having him hit over 50% of his shots. If they do that, they can literally beet anyone. Ohio State scares me in a single elimination game.
#1 INDIANA
They are one of the few teams that have it all. Post presence. Guard play. Team defensive fundamentals. Dynamic offense at almost every position. Swag. Great coaching.
Wait a minute. Let's talk about that coaching for a second. They have a great philosophy, but watch all their close games - they make very, very few adjustments. In effect, they win those games because their players are so much more skilled and athletic than the opposition. Look at the MSU/Hoosiers game here in East Lansing. One reason they win. Oladipo decides that "I'm going to play like a top 5 NBA pick." Bam. Over. Why does Indiana close out the Wolverines? Well, the first reason is they choked. But the second reason is that Zeller hung 25 points and 10 rebounds on them, and they just played smart. The Wolverines basically ran clear outs for Burke while the other guys stood there praying.
But, just because you have the best team on paper doesn't mean you'll win the tournament. The recipe to keep the Hoosiers down (if you have the athletes) - play a hard man to man with a little 2/3 zone thrown in to contest their shooters. Make Oladipo shoot jump shots - he's much too quick and athletic to allow him in the lane. Limit Zeller's run outs - he gets at least six points a game this way. Make Chrisitan put it on the floor and be physical with him. Pick up Jordan Hulls at halfcourt on transition so he doesn't shoot a pull up 3 (he does this at least twice a game). On offense, you must make them work. Move the ball with the pass, not the dribble. Run Oladipo through screens to tire him out. Make Zeller play the post straight up (easiest way to get him in foul trouble). Beat them in the rebounding game. Get in the lane to draw as many fouls as possible. Don't try to match them transition for transition, but if you can run off a miss, you must get as many easy points as possible.
Now, what team in the Big Ten tournament is most qualified to do this and win the thing? Yup.
Michigan State.
Tournament Starts tomorrow!
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